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After weeks of soaring prices, across Spain and beyond, oil markets briefly breathed a sigh of relief this week, only for fresh tensions to send prices edging back up again.

 

Following the announcement of a two-week truce between the US and Iran, oil prices saw one of their sharpest drops in decades. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell by as much as 16% to around $94 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped to roughly $96. It marked one of the biggest falls since 1990, cooling what had been a steady climb above $100 in recent weeks.

 

That surge past $100 had already raised concerns for households and businesses, highlighting how closely global tensions are tied to everyday energy costs (Oil prices surge above $100 a barrel as Iran conflict drags on).

 

However, the sense of calm did not last long. By Thursday April 9, prices had begun rising again, with Brent climbing back to $96.53 and WTI to $97.02. The shift comes as doubts grow over whether the ceasefire will hold, particularly after fresh military action in the region and warnings from Iran over shipping routes.

 

At the heart of the uncertainty is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit route. While the ceasefire initially promised safe passage, mixed signals have left markets uneasy. Only a handful of vessels have passed through in recent days, far below the usual daily flow, and some ships have reportedly been warned they could be targeted without permission.

 

As one shipping executive put it, “It is very difficult to plan because every day you get very different news,” reflecting the stop-start nature of the situation. Another concern is the potential cost of transit. “If there were fees running i

nto millions… it would be quite ridiculous for the entire industry,” one industry figure warned.

Even if tensions ease, experts say Europe may not see an immediate drop in energy bills. The disruption has already affected global supply, with damage to infrastructure and reduced output expected to have longer-term effects. Gas prices, for example, remain above pre-conflict levels, and rebuilding supply chains could take months or even years.

 

There is also a wider issue at play. Europe imports around 80 to 85% of its oil, meaning global price swings quickly feed through to consumers. A rise of $10 per barrel can add between 3 and 6 cents per litre at the pump, depending on national taxes.

 

For now, markets remain highly sensitive. As one analyst put it, “This volatility isn’t going away.”

In short, while the truce has brought a moment of relief, the bigger picture remains uncertain, and for drivers and households across Spain, that likely means prices will stay unpredictable for some time.